Election Update: Late Night Thurs Nov 5

Late night update on Thurs Nov 5.

JOE BIDEN IS 24,381 VOTES AWAY FROM OFFICIALLY BEING THE PRESIDENT-ELECT. And he will get those votes tonight in GA or PA, or both.

I cracked open the whiskey by the fire with excellent fried chicken and cheddar grits — maybe a subconscious ode to Georgia? Well, I did play Georgia on my Mind on repeat, loudly (sorry neighbors!) so maybe it was more conscious than not.

As I said earlier today, while we are growing tired of waiting for results, this is a healthy and normal process of counting votes carefully. Speed is not the goal — accuracy is. And now, with COVID procedures in balloting rooms, it takes longer. Add in the 10-fold amount of mail ballots in Pennsylvania from prior elections, and this stuff just takes time to do right. Again, G-d bless them.

Tomorrow, I’ll talk more about the calendar looking ahead — to final arrival of ballots, then to local election boards that certify their results before state election boards certify the full statewide results. At that point, candidates can call for recounts under their state’s rules, with those recount results certified again by election boards. For the Presidential race, this process must be complete by Dec. 14 for that state’s electors to cast their ballots for President.

Maybe tomorrow, I’ll also dig in to the various relatively minor lawsuits currently being tossed at courts by the Trump campaign like spaghetti thrown at the wall.

For now, here’s an update on the counting:

ELECTORAL MATH without these states: Biden is at 253, and needs to get to 270 of course.

PA: On track for Biden to take the lead there at any moment. Biden is now just votes 22,576 votes behind Trump there, and election workers are completing the counting of 281,000 votes left. These ballots are absentee ballots that have been going 78–22 for Biden. I saw Biden winning there by 100–120k earlier today. Now I think that could be as big as 150–200k (!). JEREMY CONFIDENCE LEVEL in PA: Very very high. (Upgraded even higher)

NV: Biden’s lead is 11,438 with 147,000 ballots to be counted. Almost all of these ballots are absentee ballots from Democratic areas mostly in Clark County. JEREMY CONFIDENCE LEVEL in NV: Very high. (Slight upgrade)

GA: Wooooo-doggy. Biden is now within 1,709 votes. About 9,000 votes remain, with Biden winning 80–90% of these votes. Biden will be ahead in Georgia by about 6,000 votes. JEREMY CONFIDENCE LEVEL in GA: High. (slight downgrade)

One interesting thing about Georgia: Their overseas and military ballots must arrive by Nov 6 to be counted. As many as 8,000 such ballots have yet to be returned and counted. We will find out how many of these ballots did indeed make it on time, tomorrow. I would guess these go 50–50, but that’s based only on past experience as Military and Overseas Voting Act bill author — no data yet that supports any guess.

AZ: I said Biden is fine here, and I think he will still win the state.Biden leads by 47,052 votes with 309,000 ballots to be counted. These votes are mostly absentee ballots put in drop boxes close to Election Day. Maricopa County (Phoenix) will upload another large batch of results tomorrow morning. Trump needs to get 58% of all of these ballots to win the state; he’s been getting 54%. I previously said this would end up Biden +30–40k. I now think it will be Biden +10k. JEREMY CONFIDENCE LEVEL in AZ: Moderate. (Downgraded slightly)

NC: Nothing to update until the Nov 12 late-arrival deadline for absentee votes cast by Election Day, including those military and overseas votes. Trump’s leads but 76,702 with approx. 172,000 ballots to be counted. JEREMY CONFIDENCE LEVEL in NC: Low. (No change).

ELECTORAL MATH: Pennsylvania and Nevada gets Biden to 279. I am highly confident of this minimum result.

Add Arizona, 290.

Add Georgia, 306.

And I haven’t even discussed Alaska yet! There’s a Senate seat there and 3 electoral votes, with just 56% of the vote in. Largely Democratic areas in rural Alaska will be counted in the coming days. I still think it’s a Republican state, but watch it a bit.

ONE LAST NOTE: Trump made the most embarrassing and disgusting speech today in the history of the American Presidency. It deserves your anger — but not any oxygen. Don’t spread it. Don’t feed it. Don’t let up on our mission: Restore the soul of our democracy as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s partner.

Off to bed. See you all tomorrow.