MORNING UPDATE, Sat Nov 7:
I believe that the Associated Press will finally call the race today given the numbers as they stand, summarized below.
President-Elect Biden’s team quietly celebrated Friday because they became certain of what I said as early as Wednesday morning — that the race is won, with sufficient margins in every state needed to exceed 270, and with margins that should hold to reach 306 or more.
For this morning, I won’t speculate why the AP and others won’t call the race. Their hesitation has moved from frustrating to being on the edge of irresponsible. It’s done. It’s done.
Vote Counts, as of early this morning:
PA: Biden + 28,833. ~90k absentee ballots remain to be counted, and another ~100k ballots that arrived after Election Day which will also be counted, but won’t be needed to determine the outcome. JEREMY CONFIDENCE: Everest-level.
NV: Biden + 22,657. ~124k absentee ballots remain to be counted, almost all from Clark County (Vegas). JEREMY CONFIDENCE: Everest-level.
GA: Biden + 7,248. Only a few thousand ballots left to be counted. Biden will keep his lead, and the race will be subject to a recount. It’s hard to see a ~ 7k vote lead changing there. JEREMY CONFIDENCE: Mt. McKinley level.
AZ: Biden + 29,861. ~180k ballots left to be counted, a mix of mostly early voting the last day or two before Election Day, and some provisional ballots that require more rigor on each ballot before counting. Trump has been averaging just below what he would need across these ballots over the last two days. JEREMY CONFIDENCE: North Rim of the Grand Canyon level.
NC: Trump + 76,515. Up to 179k absentees and provisional ballots could be in by the Nov 12 deadline, when officials will count and release final totals. JEREMY CONFIDENCE: About as stable as a beach on a barrier island (not so good).
AK: Trump + 51,382. Up to 193k votes to be counted, approx. 40% of the total vote. JEREMY CONFIDENCE: As rocky as a crab boat on the Bering Sea.
Electoral votes with atmospheric confidence level (PA and NV):
Electoral votes with strong confidence level (add GA and AZ):
So, how’s my dishwasher? No update. Still not working. JEREMY CONFIDENCE: Misplaced, obviously. (Right,
How’s the COVID situation? Horrible and getting worse. And the White House is still a hot spot for the virus. After working the room at a 150-person party at 3am Election Night — indoors, in the White House, with no masks — Chief of Staff Mark Meadows now has tested positive.
How’s President-Elect Biden doing? Impressively. His calming short speech on Friday night was the same message of decency, unity and getting to work on substantive issues, particularly on the pandemic. Nice to soon have a working President again, right?
How are you doing?