Presidential Race update — The Morning After Voting:
Things are pointing entirely toward Joe Biden having earned 307 electoral votes and a sizable popular vote win of 5–9 million votes in the end.
I signed off around 11pm last night urging “Patience, jedis, patience.” I said I’d get some sleep, but it was elusive… maybe for you, too?
We “went to bed” with Biden at 239 votes, and NV, WI, MI and PA totally unknown and not much else to look at it. Initial returns in the Great Lakes states showed a heavy Trump lean.
We all knew this is how it would play out — but the heart doesn’t always believe the head, right?
We knew that Election Day votes would be heavily Trump, and that mail / early voting in these key states would be heavily Biden. Because the MI and PA legislature refused to let these mail / early ballots be processed before Election Day, we knew these states would look red at first and then Biden’s votes would start overwhelming the Trump votes. That’s playing out exactly as we thought it would.
So… here’s where things sit for each state out there:
NEVADA: Biden is up a bit. It will end up close, but Biden will win the state. The ballots remaining to be counted are heavily D areas, especially Clark county mail ballots. They will next update their counts on Thursday midday.
WISCONSIN: As of 630am, with nearly all votes in now, Biden holds a ~20,000 vote lead. This is about the same margin as Gov. Evers’ win in 2018, and should hold up even as a few more absentee ballots get counted this morning.
MICHIGAN: Almost all of the E-Day votes are counted, and now mail ballots are being counted. The state is effectively tied this morning, and Biden’s mail ballots will slowly but surely add up to a decent win in Michigan. The awesome Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson just said she expects counting to be nearly complete by the end of today — two days sooner than some of us expected.
With these states alone, Biden would reach 271 electoral votes.
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump’s Election Day lead has totaled just about 700k votes. The Biden team has been confident about PA turnout since midday Tuesday, and they likely have good reason to be. Biden’s lead among mail-in / early vote is expected to accrue a ~800k vote margin.
GEORGIA: Biden trails by about 103k votes here. But the remaining votes are absentee ballots in deep Biden territory in and around Atlanta (Fulton County). Some of these precincts will go 95–5 Biden on mail balloting, and there are ~250–300k ballots to finish counting. Why so late in Georgia? Well, imagine you’re an elections staffer processing mail ballots on Election Day — knowing this could be close — and suddenly, a pipe bursts and floods your ballot processing room! Can’t make this up. 2020, right?! Well, no ballots were harmed in the making of this true-drama, but it sure slowed down the process.
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump’s lead is down to 77k votes. And ballots-in-hand are still being counted all over the state, and NC accepts late-arriving absentee ballots through Nov 12 (affirmed by the US Supreme Court, even!). I’d love these electoral votes for Biden, because it would nearly match my pre-E-Day prediction of 321 EVs for Biden. But I would most like to see the US Senate race flip there; that seems even less likely.
Speaking of the Senate? More on that later. Gotta go make coffee and check on the cinnamon rolls and bobka in the oven (stress baking yesterday!).
Patience, jedis, patience.
P.S. No, I will not discuss Trump’s speech at 2 a.m. We are counting every vote, and I am not giving him any damn oxygen. Stay vigilant, sure, but join me in ignoring the wanna-be dictator. For now.